14 Nov 08 Center-Right or Center-Left?
Watch Bill O’Reilly and Jon Stewart debate the question lol.
03 Nov 08 The Election Line
With one day left in the campaign, the national Pollster numbers show Barack Obama leading John McCain 51.5% to 44.3%, with 4.2% of the votes going to other candidates or still undecided. Their electoral college prediction is 311 votes for Obama, 142 votes for McCain, and 85 votes too close to call. These are the best predictions available in the US, but many people wonder how accurate they really are. For example, what if the people polled weren’t telling the truth?
There is a better way to predict elections than polling the voting population: ask the gamblers. Rather than dealing in hypothetical what-if’s, the gambling world deals in dollars and cents. Every potential fraud or screwup has to be taken into account when your livelihood depends on correctly predicting the outcome. A pollster can say “Ooops!” and move on, but a bookie who sets the wrong odds literally loses his shirt. Gambling on election outcomes is illegal in America, but perfectly acceptable in many parts of the world. Two sites, Intrade and Betfair, won’t let Americans place bets, but do publish their election odds lines. With only one day left to go, their numbers are likely to be very accurate. If not, they face going out of business the day after tomorrow.
This morning Betfair has Barack Obama at approximately 91% to win and John McCain at 8%, with the odds of Obama receiving more than 350 electoral votes at 59%. Those are overwhelming odds this late in the game. Their prediction model has Obama winning the following battleground states: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Over at the Intrade site they put the electoral college numbers front and center: 353 for Obama, 185 for McCain. Their model has Obama picking up the same swing states, plus Nevada. Here’s the bottom line: tomorrow night the newsboy bobbleheads are going to be talking about an Obama presidency, you can bet on it.
28 Oct 08 FUX News: Unfair & Unbalanced
It is becoming very clear to the American public that television and radio need “Fairness Doctrine” laws to provide a level playing field for all political viewpoints. In the past 20 years the media, mainstream and otherwise, has become consolidated under the ownership of a handful of large corporations. One company in particular, News Corp., owned by Rupert Murdoch, has taken the practice of promoting right-wing viewpoints to extremes. FUX News hosts regularly shout down guests who attempt to provide a counterpoint to the biased claims of Murdoch’s propaganda. Today Fox News operates without any regulatory boundaries on content, free to broadcast self-serving political viewpoints presented as news, as discussed in this video by Bill Burton and Megyn Kelly.
Video from Daily Kos
21 Oct 08 Keith Olbermann On Mob Rule
Keith Olbermann weighs in on the paranoid, polarizing, and sometimes racist statements of the McCain campaign team and their supporters.
20 Oct 08 Obama Endorsements
The endorsements have been pouring in for Barack Obama in the past few days. Everyone’s heard about the Colin Powell appearance on Meet the Press yesterday, but the real surprises are coming from small town conservative papers all over the country. To put it simply, the endorsements for John McCain are few and far between.
The most surprising endorsement of all came from “The Eagle” in College Station, Texas, home to the Texas A&M Aggies. That paper has never before endorsed a Democrat, not even Lyndon Johnson back in the 60’s, but they came out for Obama yesterday. Their web site is swamped this morning, so I’ve included the full text of their editorial after the jump.
It’s well worth reading to find out what “the best of America”, to use Sarah Palin’s words, is thinking. To put it simply, they don’t think the idea of her running for Vice President is a very good one. “Pro-America” newspaper editors want to send her back to Alaska ASAP, and rightly so.
17 Oct 08 McCain Eats Humble Pie
John McCain showed up for his Letterman gig last night, primarily to say “I screwed up.” Dave lets him off pretty easily, but gets some good laughs in the process.
15 Oct 08 The Fat Lady Warms Up
The conservative pundits are sharpening their skewers and lighting the bonfire for John McCain. They all agree that there doesn’t seem to be any way he can win the election. Tonight’s debate is his last chance to pull a rabbit out of the hat, and it seems that pulling Palin out of the hat was his last and best trick.
Jed Report link:
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/conservatives-lay-blame-as-oba.html
15 Oct 08 McCain Going Buns Up For Dave
After ditching out and being roasted for weeks, John McCain will be going back on the David Letterman show this Thursday night. I don’t usually watch the Late Show, but I’m going to make an exception this time for sure. I can only hope that the Top Ten list will be: “The Top Ten Reasons Why John McCain begged to come back on this show.” Number One: He’s going to need a job after the election and we’re interviewing for a new sidekick.
14 Oct 08 Poll Tracking
We’ve added three permanent pages to the site for those of you who like to see the daily numbers. The National page tracks the overall popular election estimates, the Key States page includes states that are integral to an electoral college victory, and the Swing States page covers the states currently considered to be toss-ups. These Pollster.com charts are compilations of all major polls.
Update: Polls for key Senate races have also been added.
28 Sep 08 McCain Sinking Fast
The Stockton Record endorsed Barack Obama today. The last time they backed a Democrat was 72 years ago, when FDR was running for his second term in 1936. Located in a farm community in California’s central valley, The Record serves one of the most conservative areas in the nation. It’s very clear to them that John McCain represents four more years of the same failed Georgie Porgie policies.
Stockton Record link:
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080928/A_OPINION01/809280301/-1/A_OPINION
“For eight years, American politics has been marked by smears, fears and greed. For too long, we’ve practiced partisanship in Washington, not politics. The result is a cynicism every bit as deep as that which infected the nation when Richard Nixon was shamed from office and when Bill Clinton brought shame to the office.
This must end, but John McCain can’t do it. He can’t inspire, nor can he really break from a past that is breaking this nation.”
Their assessment of Palin is even more damaging:
“… McCain’s most troubling trait: his judgment.
While praiseworthy for putting the first woman on a major-party presidential ticket since Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, his selection of Palin as a running mate was appalling. The first-term governor is clearly not experienced enough to serve as vice president or president if required. Her lack of knowledge is being covered up by keeping her away from questioning reporters and doing interviews only with those considered friendly to her views.”
Finally, their endorsement of Obama is direct and clear:
“Obama can inspire, and our nation desperately needs an inspirational leader. And he does not carry the deep scars of Vietnam, as do many of McCain’s generation.
He offers hope. A new way of doing business. And a belief that our system of government can be made to work.
He’s the clear choice.”
27 Sep 08 Fux News Lovers Liked Obama
Hard to believe that a group of undecided Fux News watchers thought Obama won the debate, but it’s true. It’s even harder to believe that Fux News showed people who disagreed with their party line on camera, but they did. The only possible explanation is that they know McCain is sinking, and he’s going down fast. The rats are going overboard as quickly as they can.
